National Data on Medical Student Success Outcomes

This page features national data on medical student outcomes from the most recent cohorts available. Examining the associations of undergraduate GPAs and MCAT scores with these varied outcomes provides different insights about the likelihood of success for applicants with different ranges of undergraduate GPAs and MCAT scores.

Predictive Analysis of Student Performance

The grids below describe how well undergraduate GPAs and MCAT scores predict medical student performance on the Step 1 exam (first attempt and ever), the Step 2 CK exam (first attempt and ever), on-time progression to year three, progression to year three with an extra year, and graduation from medical school within four or five years. To provide a comprehensive view, the first set of grids use total GPA and total MCAT score, while the second set of grids use BCPM (science) GPA and total MCAT score.

Methodological Notes:

• All MCAT scores are from the current version of the MCAT exam.
• For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score was used in this analysis.
• Students who entered medical school with advanced standing from medical, graduate, or other programs; were enrolled in joint programs (e.g., MD-PhD) at the time of matriculation or graduation; participated in special research/nonresearch studies; or are deceased are not included in this table.

Success Outcomes and Matriculant Cohorts

The data is categorized by specific student success outcomes and the respective years of matriculation:

USMLE Step Examination Performance

• Passing Step 1 on the First Attempt and Ever: 2020, 2021, and 2022 Matriculants.
• Passing Step 2 CK on the First Attempt and Ever: 2019, 2020, and 2021 Matriculants.

Academic Progression and Graduation

• Progression to Year Three on Time or With an Extra Year: 2019, 2020, and 2021 Matriculants.
• Graduation Within Four or Five Years: 2017, 2018, and 2019 Matriculants.

Data Interpretation Legend

The following table illustrates the performance indicators used in the AAMC national data grids:

Note: Cells with dashes indicate fewer than 10 observations, while blank cells indicate zero observations.